April 2025 Real Estate Market Update: Mortgage Rate Swings, Canadian Sellers & What It Means for Buyers in Chandler, AZ

If you’re buying or selling real estate in Chandler, Gilbert, or the Greater Phoenix area, you’ve likely noticed how quickly things are changing. Mortgage rates are bouncing, listings are climbing, and buyers and sellers are adjusting their expectations daily.

Let’s break it all down—what’s happening with rates, why more Canadian homeowners may be listing in Arizona, and how it affects you if you’re navigating the Chandler real estate market right now.

 Mortgage Rates in Arizona: What’s Behind the Fluctuations?

For a brief time last week, mortgage rates in Arizona looked like they were heading in a positive direction. The 30-year fixed mortgage dipped to 6.60%, thanks to turmoil in the stock market that made U.S. treasury bonds look safer.

But by this week, rates bounced back up—now hovering around 6.85%, similar to what we saw earlier this year.

Why?

• A recent U.S. Treasury auction saw weaker-than-expected demand, especially from foreign buyers.

• When bond prices fall, yields rise—and mortgage rates quickly follow.

• Add in high U.S.-China tariffs (104%), which reduce imports and foreign investment, and there’s even less demand for U.S. bonds.

 Key takeaway for Arizona homebuyers:

Even if inflation stays steady, rates could rise simply due to declining global interest in U.S. bonds. This affects your buying power, monthly payments, and ability to qualify.

 Canadians Selling Homes in Arizona – Is It True?

We recently received a question: “Are more Canadian homeowners selling their properties in Arizona and returning to Canada?”

Here’s what the data tells us (sourced from Maricopa County and Pinal County affidavit filings):

• Active listings from Canadian tax mailing addresses are up 268% year-over-year.

• Canadians are mostly listing condos, townhomes, and mobile homes—with a higher share of single-family homes listed in Pinal County.

• Most Canadians are not selling, but the increase in listings is significant.

• The weaker Canadian dollar also makes U.S. real estate sales more appealing for Canadian owners right now.

Are Canadians still buying Arizona homes?

Yes—71 Canadian buyers purchased homes in Maricopa County in Q1 of 2025 (down from 86 last year). So while the net flow may be shifting, it’s not a one-way exit.

 Greater Phoenix Housing Market Trends – April 2025 Snapshot

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in Chandler, AZ or surrounding cities like Gilbert, Tempe, or Mesa, here are the latest housing numbers:

Inventory is Rising

• Active Listings (excluding UCB/CCBS): 24,990 (up 47% YoY)

• New Listings YTD: Up nearly 20% from 2024

 Home Prices Remain Steady (for now)

• Median Sales Price: $459,500 (up 3.3% YoY)

• Luxury deals are propping up price data, but this may change as high-end demand cools.

 Buyer Demand is Rebounding

• Pending Listings: Up 1.8% YoY

• Monthly Sales: Up 2.6% YoY

 Builder Response

• Builders like KB Home are cutting base prices.

• Others are offering incentives, but Wall Street is losing confidence (Lennar stock is down 32% YoY).

 Where the Market Is Headed: Buyer’s Market Emerging in AZ

Cities like Tempe, Peoria, Cave Creek, Goodyear, and even parts of Scottsdale are seeing a swing toward buyers. According to the Cromford® Market Index:

• Chandler is currently the only city still solidly above 120.

• Many cities have shifted into balanced or buyer’s market territory.

 What Buyers & Sellers Should Do in Chandler, AZ Right Now

For Home Buyers in Chandler or Gilbert, AZ:

• You have more leverage, more listings to choose from, and more room to negotiate.

• Just imagine locking in a deal before rates climb again or the best properties are gone.

For Sellers:

• Price realistically and lean on a local expert.

• If you’re not getting showings, the market is giving you feedback—and it’s worth listening.

For Canadian homeowners in Arizona:

• If you’ve been waiting to sell, now may be a smart time to capitalize on the strong USD and rising inventory.

 Final Thoughts from a Local Chandler Realtor

The 2025 Arizona real estate market is unpredictable—but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible to navigate. The key is to stay informed, work with someone who studies the market every day, and adjust your strategy to match reality—not hope.

Before you make up your mind, how open-minded would you be to a 15-minute strategy session?

I’ll help you break down your options, understand where the market is headed, and build a simple, clear plan—whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring your next move.

 Ready to Talk Real Estate in Chandler, AZ?

I’m Ben Graham, a local real estate expert with REAL Broker here in Chandler, AZ. I help families, investors, and out-of-state buyers navigate the ever-changing Phoenix metro market with clarity, care, and confidence.

 Call or text me directly at 480-448-2020

 Or email me at [email protected]

Because of the fact that you said you want to make smart decisions in this market…

I recommend we chat soon. You don’t need to go it alone.